Lunds Tekniska Högskola

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Adaptation of Buildings and Energy Systems to Uncertain Future Conditions

Assessing renewable energy sources and climate change

Covering the energy demand of cities and urban areas is a challenging task and with the current concerns about climate change and the increased trends of urbanization, it will be more challenging in future. The current urge of adding more renewable sources to energy systems is a response to that concern as well as being affected by the situation of the traditional energy sources such as fossil fuels and nuclear energy plants. Although having more renewables will decrease CO2 emissions, it brings several challenges. For example renewable energy sources such as solar radiations and wind are not always available and their variations are large in different time scales, from hourly to seasonal. Having a secure flow of energy in an urban area is very important; it is vital to cover the demand during whole year, especially on peak hours and extreme conditions which will happen more often according to predictions about future climate. 

This project intends to assess the future conditions for urban areas with several buildings and to deeply analyse the probable energy demands for future climate. Several future scenarios will be considered for future climate, urbanization, technical advance and etc. Energy performance of urban areas will be assessed thoroughly by looking into buildings as the demand/generation nodes of the energy grid and by quantifying the potentials for integrating more renewable energy sources in the energy system. More than centralized energy systems, several decentralized solutions such as energy-hub will be considered in the assessment. Both the long and short term performance of system will be assessed for future climatic conditions, considering several climate scenarios as well as extreme climatic conditions. Adopting a probabilistic analyses, the importance of several uncertainty factors in the assessment of the reliability and robustness of the energy system will be analysed. More than creating strong professional links with some of the best research groups in the field, running this project will expand the impact assessment of climate change towards buildings and energy systems in urban areas, providing a comprehensive view about future urban energy systems, role of buildings as distributed nodes and possibilities to face future challenges.

Duration: 2016 - 2019

Financed by Formas 


Relevant Publications

Mauree, D., Coccolo, S., Perera, D., Nik, V. M., Scartezzini J-L, Naboni E. “A New Framework to Evalu-ate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modelling in Future Climatic Conditions”, Sustainability 2018, 10, 1134.

Nik, V. M., “Application of typical and extreme weather data sets in the hygrothermal simulation of building components for future climate – A case study for a wooden frame wall”, Energy Build., vol. 154, pp. 30–45, Nov. 2017.

Nik, V. M., Arfvidsson, J., “Using Typical and Extreme Weather Files for Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Buildings”, NSB2017, Energy Procedia, vol. 132, 616-621, October 2017.

Perera, A.T.D., Nik, V.M., Mauree, D., Scartezzini, J.-L., “An integrated approach to design site specific distributed electrical hubs combining optimization, multi-criterion assessment and decision making”, Energy, vol. 134, pp. 103–120, Sep. 2017.

Nik, V. M., Coccolo, S., Kämpf, J., Scartezzini, J.-L., “Investigating the importance of future climate typology on estimating the energy performance of buildings in the EPFL campus”, Energy Procedia, vol. 122, pp. 1087–1092, Sep. 2017.

Perera, A. T. D., Wickramasinghe, U., Nik, V. M., Scartezzini, J.-L., “Optimum design of distributed energy hubs using hybrid surrogate models (HSM)”, Energy Procedia, vol. 122, pp. 187–192, Sep. 2017.

Perera, A.T.D., Nik, V.M., Mauree, D., Scartezzini, J.-L., “Electrical hubs: An effective way to integrate non-dispatchable renewable energy sources with minimum impact to the grid”, Applied Energy, vol. 190, pp. 232–248, Mar. 2017.

Nik, V. M., “Making energy simulation easier for future climate - Synthesizing typical and extreme weather data sets out of regional climate models (RCMs)”, Applied Energy, vol. 177, pp. 204–226, Sep. 2016.

Nik, Vahid M., and Angela Sasic Kalagasidis. 2013. “Impact Study of Climate Change on the Energy Performance of the Building Stock in Stockholm Considering Four Climate Uncertainties.” Building and Environment (February): 291-304. doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2012.11.005.


Project Partners

   Akademiska Hus